Trading the TLT + Crude, Dollar & Gold Chart Check | MRKT Call
Dec 28, 2023
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Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Carter Worth analyze macro charts for 2023 and 2024, focusing on TLT and trading options. They discuss the relationship between the S&P 500 and 10-year treasury yield, speculate on potential market corrections, and talk about the movements of the dollar, gold, and oil. They express frustration with gold's current level and believe oil will be a top performing asset in 2024. They also discuss their beliefs in gold, Q4 earnings, and their plans for tactical positioning in 2024.
Semiconductor stocks have potential for further upside but the current rally may be mature and trimming positions is advisable.
The S&P 500 may experience a potential pullback or correction soon, indicated by filled gaps on the upside and significant unfilled gaps on the downside.
Deep dives
Semis are still below their peak from the dot-com era
Carter Worth explains that while semiconductor stocks have experienced strong rallies recently, they are still below their peak levels from the dot-com era. He believes that semis have the potential for further upside but also warns that the current rally is mature and it might be time to trim existing positions or reduce risk.
The S&P 500 is approaching its previous high
The S&P 500 has been steadily climbing and is approaching its previous high levels. Carter Worth suggests that while the market has shown strength, there may be a potential for a pullback or correction in the near future. He points out that the market has filled previous gaps on the upside and there are a significant number of unfilled gaps on the downside, which may indicate a healthy market correction.
Yields may bounce up
Carter Worth predicts a potential bounce in yields in the near term. He suggests that the recent downtrend in yields, dropping from 5% to 3.75%, might see a counter-trend move upwards. This bounce in yields could coincide with a bump up in the US dollar. He recommends considering reducing existing large positions or implementing risk management strategies.
Gold is expected to perform well in 2024
Carter Worth remains bullish on gold and expects it to be one of the best-performing assets in 2024. He highlights that gold has outperformed the NASDAQ 100 since equities peaked two years ago and believes that the factors that supported gold in 2022 and 2023, such as central bank buying and potential economic slowdowns, will continue to drive its performance in the new year.