Volatility Views 231: VIX Put Frenzy and Social Media Volatility

Volatility Review: The Trumpocalypse is fading. VIX cash is back below 14. VVIX = 87, back below 100.

Russells Weekly Rundown:

• If a Trump Presidency is scary, why is VIX so low?
• VIX Options: A lighter volume week than last week - started strong, pushing 1M contracts on Tuesday, but then fell off. Total 3.88m (2.80m Calls, 1.08m Puts)
• Crude Oil: OIV = 48, elevated compared to recent weeks - spiked to 53 on Wednesday.

Volatility Voicemail/Options #Question of the Week

$TSLA ($182.50, down 3%, IV30:41, HV30:31) Straddle says $8.20 move (4.5%) by Friday close. How much will $TSLA actually move?

• 20% - In line: ($8-$8.50)
• 37% - Beat Straddle: > $8
• 23% - Less than Straddle: < $8
• 20% - Sick of #Musk / $TSLA

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Alex Devers - What does the future hold in terms of social media sentiment and volatility. Is there a social volatility index out there already? If not is this something the folks at CBOE are cooking up?
• Question from Avec - Has anyone studied the effect of selling weekly options vs monthly options INCLUDING commissions? Seems like that would be a big factor when writing so many contracts.

Crystal Ball: Reckless and wild prognostication.

Last Week:

• Mark L. - 15
• Mark S. - 12
• Russell - 13.5

This Week:

• Mark L. - 11.75
• Mark S. - 12.25
• Russell - 14