Investing Experts Fiscal headwinds and unrealistic S&P EPS growth with James Kostohryz
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Jun 12, 2025 James Kostohryz, a macroeconomics expert leading the Successful Portfolio Strategy group on Seeking Alpha, discusses potential economic shocks expected by 2025. He critiques unrealistic S&P EPS growth expectations and the consequences of soaring inflation and interest rates. Kostohryz shares allocation strategies for potential recessions and scrutinizes geopolitical risks, particularly the tensions between Israel and Iran. He also delves into the factors behind Bitcoin's recent price surge, examining investor sentiment versus traditional valuation methods.
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Necessity of Active, Global Investing
- Buy and hold and passive strategies will not be very profitable going forward.
- Investors must be more active and look internationally for better opportunities.
Lagged Economic Impact of Tariffs
- Tariffs impacts on economy begin in June but won't show fully in data until July or August.
- Inflation (CPI) will likely accelerate in coming months due to tariffs.
Labor Growth Drop Signals Recession
- Declining growth in nonfarm payrolls historically signals recession.
- Current labor supply tightness linked to reduced illegal immigration.