In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 109: A Tale of Two Last Wars, Afghanistan and Ukraine

Jul 26, 2023

Comparing the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan with Putin's war in Ukraine, exploring casualties and impact. Consequences for Russian veterans and the Russian Federation. Examining casualty rates and potential pushback against Moscow. Afghan veteran's struggle for prosthetic limbs. Role of security elite and potential for future foreign wars.

53:46

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Quick takeaways

Understanding the impact of the Ukraine war on society, resources, and potential social unrest is crucial for Russia's future.

The war in Ukraine could lead to regional tensions and pushback against the central government, exacerbating ethnic politics and regional pressures within the Russian Federation.

Deep dives

Comparison between Soviet Union's War in Afghanistan and Putin's War in Ukraine

This podcast episode highlights the similarities and differences between the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan and Putin's war in Ukraine. The speaker compares casualty figures, the effect on their respective countries, and the decision-making of the leaders involved. Despite the different nature of the wars, the speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding their impact on society, the strain on resources, and the potential for social dislocation and unrest. The episode also discusses the challenges of finding a resolution to the conflict and the potential for long-term consequences on the Russian Federation's political, economic, and security systems.

Introduction

3min

Soviet Invasions: Afghanistan and Ukraine

15min

The Impact of the Afghan War on Russian Veterans and the Russian Federation

2min

Casualties and Participation Rates

16min

Struggle for Prosthetic Limbs

15min

Fragmentation of Security Elite and Future Foreign Wars

3min

Can one draw meaningful parallels between the Soviets' 1979-88 war in Afghanistan, and the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine? The wars may have been very different, but I would suggest there are ways in which the Afghanistan experience helps inform our understanding of the Ukraine war - and above all, how this will affect Russia politically, socially and economically in the future. The good news is that this is one reason why, just as Afghanistan was the Soviet Union's last war, Ukraine should be Putin's.

If anyone is interested, the 'book of the PhD' is Afghanistan: the Soviet Union's last war (Routledge, 1995), while the later book I mentioned digging into the initial seizure of Kabul is Storm-333 (Osprey, 2021).

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.

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