Behind the Balance Sheet #54 The Innovation Fans
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Dec 18, 2025 Morgan Samet, an investment pro and entrepreneur, teams up with seasoned investor James Anderson to explore the landscape of innovation investing. They dive into the potential of AI, discussing current risks and future breakthroughs. China's dominance in tech manufacturing and battery production is discussed alongside geopolitical concerns. Morgan shares insights on the economics of autonomous vehicles, while the pair emphasizes the importance of long-term investments. Together, they envision a durable innovation strategy that nurtures founders and adapts to market changes.
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Early Entrepreneur Turned Investor
- Morgan started entrepreneurial activities at seven years old with a candy reselling business and keeps memorabilia.
- She began investing at 18 and helped start a college public markets fund that still exists.
LLMs Are Lookup Machines, Not AGI
- Current LLMs act like fast lookup tools, not genuine intelligence, and won't deliver scientific breakthroughs without new architectures.
- James Anderson thinks true transformative AI impacts (e.g., healthcare) are likely a decade or more away.
Scale Vs. Original Thinking
- Morgan Samet agrees current architectures scale by sharing learned patterns centrally, which discourages first-principles breakthroughs.
- She expects huge societal shifts from layered gains in semiconductors, cloud, and robotics even without AGI.