Uncertainty isn’t good for domestic solar manufacturing. How are suppliers and utilities managing it?
Mar 25, 2025
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Mike Hall, CEO and co-founder of Anza Renewables, offers insights into the solar industry's future amidst uncertainty. He discusses the projected 26 GW solar capacity increase and the impact of shifting federal tax credits. Hall reveals how supply chains are diversifying to adapt, though China's dominance persists. He also tackles Trump’s tariffs on manufacturing and the financial incentives aiding developers. The conversation underscores the need for strategic planning in an unpredictable landscape, highlighting innovative procurement approaches.
Uncertainty surrounding federal tax credits and trade policies poses significant risks for solar project investors and developers.
Despite the dominance of Chinese manufacturers, the U.S. solar industry is shifting towards blending domestic and imported solutions to adapt to new incentives.
Deep dives
The Growing Landscape of Solar and Storage
The solar and storage markets have experienced unprecedented growth, driven by an increasing demand for power and the transition towards clean energy solutions. The past decade has seen a significant rise in solar installation, yet uncertainties regarding policy and market dynamics loom large. Despite this, the outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of continuous load growth fueled by advancements in technology and electrification of various sectors. However, challenges such as permitting, interconnection queues, and policy inconsistencies could hinder the seamless expansion of these markets.
Domestic Manufacturing Trends
The domestic solar manufacturing landscape is rapidly evolving, with a notable surge in interest and investment following the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Many industry players are now actively seeking options to qualify for domestic content adders, which were once viewed as unattainable. While there is an abundance of U.S.-assembled modules, the supply of American-made solar cells remains limited, creating a market environment where companies are increasingly blending domestic and imported solutions. This shift marks a significant change in strategy, as firms aim to optimize their procurement while adapting to the new guidelines and incentives set forth by policymakers.
Navigating Policy Uncertainty and Risks
Ongoing political uncertainty poses challenges to the domestic production of solar and storage technologies, impacting market sentiment and investment levels. Recent actions by the government to scale back climate initiatives have sparked concerns among stakeholders, leading to a cautious approach in making substantial investments in new manufacturing capacities. Despite the turmoil, the demand for solar solutions continues to grow, driven by the need to address escalating load challenges across the energy landscape. Manufacturers and developers are advised to proactively mitigate risks through strategic procurement and leveraging the clearer guidelines introduced by the IRS, ensuring resilience in an unpredictable market.
The US is projected to add an additional 26 GW of solar capacity in 2025. Solar has been one of the energy transition’s biggest success stories, but there are dark clouds gathering. Uncertainty is the biggest barrier to deployment at the moment: there’s potential changes coming with federal tax credits and trade policies (some of which are already having an impact), and the perceived risks are high for investors of solar projects.
To find out how developers and manufacturers are mitigating these risks, Sylvia Leyva Martinez, principal analyst covering solar markets at Wood Mackenzie, is joined by Mike Hall, CEO of Anza Renewables. Mike talks through the data he’s analysing; Anza is seeing supply chains diversify and financial incentives like the ITC Adder helping developers.
Despite efforts to bolster domestic manufacturing, China continues to dominate the global solar market. What are the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on domestic manufacturing? With a quarter of the year already gone, what have we seen in solar investment? How can long-term planning be done when so much is up in the air?