The Market Huddle THE BIGGEST AND MOST DANGEROUS BUBBLE (Guest: Julien Garran)
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Oct 17, 2025 Julien Garran, a macro strategist and partner at Macro Strategy, shares his insights on the AI bubble, arguing it could be the biggest threat to economic stability we've seen. He delves into why large language models are unlikely to yield sustainable profits and discusses the role of monetary policy in capital misallocation. Julien also highlights the rising costs associated with AI model upgrades and the implications of recent market dynamics. His take on the fragility of AI applications and comparisons to past bubbles will leave listeners both informed and intrigued.
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AI Bubble Threat To Global Order
- Julien Garran believes the AI bubble is the biggest and most dangerous bubble ever, far larger than dot-com and 2008 misallocations.
- He warns its unwinding could threaten globalist economic structures built since the 1980s.
Wine-Cellar Analogy Predicts Iron Ore Boom
- Julien recounts his commodities work predicting iron ore demand using an inventory analogy like a wine cellar.
- That research led to a 40% iron ore price rise in five weeks when Vale confirmed the surge.
Income S-Curve Drives Commodity Booms
- Garran's S-curve '$5k/$10-15k' framework links rising incomes to explosive commodity demand as middle classes adopt modern living.
- He sees India replicating China's early-2000s resource surge as millions enter higher income brackets fast.