Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition Daybreak Weekend: Jobs Preview, Paris Conference, BOJ Decision
Dec 12, 2025
Michael McKee, Bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent, dives into the U.S. jobs market's vulnerabilities and their implications for the Fed. Ben Sills shares insights on Europe's economic struggles and the urgent need for effective responses to security challenges. Paul Jackson analyzes the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike amidst persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. They also discuss the impact of international tensions on trade and economic growth in Asia.
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Jobs Report Will Be Statistically Flawed
- The November payroll report will be muddled because October data are incomplete due to the government shutdown.
- Markets and the Fed must treat the numbers cautiously since household-survey gaps create statistical anomalies.
Wait For December Before Acting
- Don't let November payrolls alone drive policy decisions because the Fed won't meet until late January.
- Wait for the complete December report before drawing firm conclusions about labor-market trends.
Big Firms Give Cleaner Job Signals
- Large firms with electronic records will provide more reliable payroll signals than small businesses.
- Small-business, construction, and home health care counts may be skewed and distort totals.