Matthew Luzzetti predicts Fed rate cuts next year, Dan Ives says bears got it wrong on Apple. Amanda Lynam expects a higher-for-longer environment. Rep. Bryan Steil points out the broken DC system they are working on. Also discussed: consumer weakening, labor market, return of bonds, iPhone demand, time management with Watson X, workers' fight for higher wages, ideological shift in the GOP.
Consumer spending is slowing down, posing concerns for the economy.
The labor market is experiencing a decrease in demand, but no significant layoffs or decline in job opportunities yet.
Deep dives
Consumer Spending Slows Amid Headwinds
Recent data shows a slowdown in consumer spending, which is concerning given the headwinds facing the consumer. This is particularly evident in the high-frequency data, with credit card spending slowing down significantly in September. It is unclear whether this is just a temporary setback from the strong summer months or the start of a new trend of consumer weakening.
Labor Market Demand Decreases
The labor market is experiencing a notable decrease in labor demand, resulting in a less tight labor market overall. However, there is no significant evidence of layoffs taking place or a decline in job opportunities at the moment. It remains uncertain whether this trend will continue if the consumer slows down as anticipated and whether a slowing labor market can be sustained by demand alone.
Unusual Period of Economic Slowdown
The current economic period is deemed unusual, but not entirely unexpected. Typically, the labor market follows a nonlinear pattern, where things seem fine until a shock occurs, leading to increased layoffs. The uncertainty lies in whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening has been limited due to latent fiscal stimulus, or if it simply hasn't hit its full impact yet.
Market Reaction and Projections
The market has been reacting to the slowdown in consumer discretionary stocks and the concerns regarding the headwinds facing the consumer. However, the exact implications and timing of the potential rise in the unemployment rate remain unclear. Overall, the market is eagerly awaiting upcoming earnings season for tech, which is expected to reinforce the potential for significant growth in the next six to nine months.
Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, sees the Fed cutting rates materially next year. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says bears got it wrong on Apple. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says we're bracing for a higher-for-longer environment. Rep. Bryan Steil (R) Wisconsin, says the DC system in which they are working on spending may be broken. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance