ForeCast [Article] Will AI R&D Automation Cause a Software Intelligence Explosion?
Aug 31, 2025
Dive into the thrilling possibilities of AI automating its own research and development. Discover how advancements in deep learning and LLMs are shaping the future of software intelligence. Explore the concept of exponential growth in AI capabilities and the crucial role of effective governance in managing rapid technological change. Learn about feedback loops that can propel AI advancements and the challenges posed by diminishing returns. The discussion reveals how we might navigate this exciting yet uncertain landscape.
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Software-Driven Explosion Is Plausible
- Automating AI R&D (ASARA) could create feedback loops that overcome diminishing returns and greatly accelerate AI progress.
- Software-only improvements (SIE) could drive rapid capability gains even without new hardware.
Feedback Beats Diminishing Returns
- A simple economic model suggests positive feedback from AI improving AI can outweigh diminishing returns to research effort.
- Empirical calibration indicates software progress likely outpaces growth in research effort, implying acceleration.
Massively Parallel Virtual Researchers
- Once ASARA exists, the same compute used to train frontier models can run many copies, yielding cognitive output equivalent to millions of top researchers.
- That multiplier makes massive increases in AI R&D capacity plausible quickly.
