

Why The Tropics Have A Weather Forecasting Problem
23 snips Oct 10, 2025
In this engaging discussion, atmospheric scientist Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza, a MacArthur Fellow, shares his insights on the unique weather patterns in the tropics. He reveals how humidity, rather than temperature, drives tropical variability, and highlights the historical reliance on mid-latitude models that fail in these regions. Ángel reflects on his personal connection to Hurricane Maria and his mission to improve forecasting accuracy for tropical communities. He also explains the significance of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in global weather dynamics.
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Childhood Hurricane That Shaped A Career
- Ángel Adames describes being ten during Hurricane George and staying up all night as winds shook his house.
- That childhood fear sparked his lifelong pursuit of understanding tropical storms and helping his community prepare.
Maria Deepened His Scientific Mission
- Ángel recounts how Hurricane Maria in 2017 left his community unreachable and felt like a loss.
- That experience intensified his drive to study humidity, circulation, and rain to serve tropical communities better.
Models Built For Mid-Latitudes Dominate Forecasting
- Mid-latitude weather research shaped most forecasting models historically, focusing on temperature variability and jet-stream dynamics.
- Those dynamics (cold/warm alternation) differ fundamentally from tropical drivers, limiting model accuracy near the equator.