The crisis is permanent - MENA after the Arab Spring w/ Gilbert Achcar
Mar 6, 2024
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Discussing the long-term revolutionary process in MENA post-Arab Spring, the challenges of counter-revolution and civil war, the root causes of political upheaval like youth unemployment, and the impact of the Gaza war. Examining state types and economic impact in the region, along with ongoing social struggles in Morocco and reasons for hope amidst turmoil.
The Arab Spring initiated a long-term revolutionary process arising from deep-rooted socio-economic crises in the MENA region.
Structural socio-economic crises in MENA, exacerbated by patrimonial states, hinder peaceful transitions and fuel civil unrest.
Deep dives
The Arab Spring and Its Consequences
The Arab Spring, which began in 2011, led to uprisings in numerous countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain. The initial hopes for democratic transitions were overshadowed by civil wars, resulting in six failed states and authoritarian setbacks in other regions. The speaker, Gilbert Ashkar, highlights the long-term revolutionary process triggered by deep socio-economic crises in the Middle East and North Africa, cautioning against overly optimistic interpretations.
Root Causes of Social Upheavals
The social explosions in the MENA region were not merely about political frustrations but stemmed from a structural socio-economic crisis. The combination of patrimonial and neo-patrimonial states, characterized by corruption and limited private sector conditions, fueled unrest. Neoliberal changes, intended to spur economic growth, failed due to inadequate conditions for private sector development, leading to high youth unemployment and social frustrations that underpinned the uprisings.
Formidable Obstacles to Change
The MENA region faces formidable obstacles to change, marked by resilient patrimonial and neo-patrimonial state systems intertwined with ruling families. Unlike Eastern Europe's bureaucratic states, the region's regimes intertwine with state ownership, hindering regime overthrows. The inextricable connection between state and regime exacerbates challenges, making peaceful transitions difficult and civil wars more likely, particularly in patrimonial states with strong familial and tribal controls.
Global Perspectives and Current Crisis
The crisis of neoliberalism post-2008 intensified global radicalization, resulting in both left-wing and far-right movements. Israel's far-right drift, exemplified by Netanyahu, contributed to the rise of the global far-right. The ongoing conflict in Gaza intensifies political frustration, intertwining with longstanding woes in the MENA region to fuel radicalization. Despite the bleak outlook, underlying social-economic issues continue to fuel social and political struggles, harboring both challenges and potential for transformative change.
Thirteen years have passed since the Arab Spring and the great hopes aroused in 2011 have been overwhelmed by counter-revolution and civil war. And yet, the region is anything but restabilised: Instead of the events of 2011 heralding a brief period of democratic transition akin to earlier developments in East Asia and Eastern Europe they instead, Gilbert Achcar argues, inaugurated a long-term revolutionary process, based in a deep-rooted socioeconomic crisis that is far from played out. In this talk Gilbert assesses the dynamics of MENA region, the factors hindering regional change, and he cautions against overly optimistic readings, while nonetheless arguing that there remain reasons for hope.
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