Europe’s future, brought to you by Putin and Trump
Feb 14, 2025
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Veronika Melkozerova, a POLITICO correspondent in Kyiv, shares firsthand insights on Ukraine's challenges amid shifting U.S. diplomacy led by Trump and Putin. Clea Caulcutt, a senior correspondent in Paris, discusses how these developments impact EU politics and trade tensions. Robert Biedroń, a Member of the European Parliament and LGBTQ rights activist, provides a personal look at his partnership with Krzysztof Śmiszek, highlighting the intersection of love and political activism in an evolving landscape.
Trump's unexpected announcement about U.S.-Ukraine negotiations has left European leaders alarmed and struggling to formulate clear responses.
The introduction of tariffs by Trump on EU imports threatens to escalate trade tensions, impacting both European economies and geopolitical strategies.
Deep dives
Trump's Shift on Ukraine
Trump's recent announcement has significantly altered U.S. policy regarding Ukraine, declaring that direct negotiations with Putin would commence. His defense chief conveyed that restoring Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is unrealistic, and NATO membership would not be a forthcoming option. This blunt articulation of what some believe are longstanding truths about U.S. intentions has left Ukrainian officials feeling uneasy, with mixed public reactions. While the Ukrainian administration projects optimism, behind the scenes, there is a clear acknowledgment that regaining lost territory is increasingly improbable.
European Leaders' Shock
European leaders were caught off guard by Trump's stark stance on Ukraine, particularly in light of their ongoing diplomatic efforts and preparations for the Munich Security Conference. The announcement created a sense of alarm among EU ministers, with some failing to articulate a clear response in the aftermath. Even those who typically engage openly on Ukraine were noticeably silent or hesitant, highlighting the gravity of the situation. This reaction underscores the deep concerns within Europe regarding their role and responsibilities in supporting Ukraine moving forward.
Uncertainties about U.S. Support
There is a prevailing anxiety within Ukraine concerning the U.S.'s commitment to its defense, particularly given Trump's rhetoric and his historical positioning. Officials worry that without substantial U.S. military backing, suggestions of deploying European peacekeepers to Ukraine will lack efficacy. This uncertainty complicates the European Union’s stance, as member states seek a cohesive approach to military support while grappling with the implications of decreased American involvement. The potential for a divided front in addressing Russian aggression may have lasting consequences for European security.
Trade Wars with Europe
Trump has initiated a new wave of trade tensions by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from various countries, including those in the EU. This move has raised alarms within Europe, prompting discussions about potential retaliatory measures, as certain industries stand to suffer significantly from these tariffs. There is also speculation about how these trade policies might influence European approaches to both domestic and international challenges, including relations with China and support for Ukraine. The situation illustrates the intricacies of U.S.-EU relations, highlighting trade as a critical battleground amidst broader geopolitical conflicts.
You’ve gotta hand it to Donald Trump — even when you’re expecting him to surprise you, he still surprises you.
The Unites States president once again caught Europe off guard with his plan to start Ukraine peace talks — after a call with Vladimir Putin. As the post-World War II order veers toward collapse, how many more surprises will it take before European leaders actually do something?
POLITICO’s Veronika Melkozerova, Clea Caulcutt and Koen Verhelst join EU Confidential host Sarah Wheaton to analyze how the EU is managing tensions on trade, tech and security.
But it’s not all breakups: In honor of Valentine’s Day, we’re talking to one of the duos on POLITICO’s list of Brussels Power Couples 2025: Members of the European Parliament Robert Biedroń and Krzysztof Śmiszek, who mix the personal and political in their fight for LGBTQ rights.
And don’t miss the latest episode of our sister podcast, Power Play. Host Anne McElvoy sits down with Federico Sturzenegger, the right-hand man of Argentina’s president, Javier Milei. They discuss, among other topics, the Mercosur deal. It’s worth a listen, here.