The Core Report #734 US-India Trade Deal Roils Currency And Stock Markets
Nov 24, 2025
Kunal Sodhani, Treasury head for India at Shinhan Bank, and Sachin Seth, Regional Managing Director for CRIF High Mark, share insights on crucial financial trends. Kunal discusses the Indian rupee's volatility amid US-India trade uncertainties and the RBI's strategic moves. Sachin reveals a shift in consumer lending towards secured loans and the credit behaviors of Gen Z. They explore how tech-driven lending is reshaping strategies and mitigating risks in the evolving economic landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Rupee Stabilised By Market Selling And RBI Support
- The rupee's recovery reflected coordinated dollar selling by banks and importers plus RBI intervention.
- Kunal Sodhani says RBI sold dollars both overseas and onshore to stabilise excessive volatility around 89 levels.
Yen Moves And Carry Trade Unwind Hit Rupee
- Rising Japanese yields and yen depreciation prompted unwind of carry trades, pressuring emerging market currencies like the rupee.
- Kunal Sodhani views this plus a wider trade deficit as reasons RBI let the rupee find a new range near 88.4–90.
Markets Already Discount A No-Deal Outcome
- Markets are largely pricing in no near-term US-India trade deal, reducing upside for the rupee.
- Kunal Sodhani warns a positive deal could sharply revalue the rupee back toward ~87.8.