Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 22nd, 2025
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Aug 22, 2025 In this discussion, Jean Boivin, Head of Investment Institute at BlackRock, sheds light on US market and economic risks for 2025, offering a forward-looking perspective on global growth. Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist at JPMorgan, dives into the intricacies of the US economy and inflation, spotlighting the delicate balance facing the Federal Reserve. The conversation also touches on labor dynamics and market trends, unveiling the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for investors and policymakers.
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Fed Retains Hawkish Bias
- The Fed still leans hawkish because most members view inflation risks as larger than growth risks.
- Powell will likely open the door to easing without promising a September cut, reflecting two-sided risk.
Payroll Weakness Signals Stall Speed
- Recent payroll weakness is a "stall speed" signal driven mainly by lower labor demand rather than supply shifts.
- That slowdown raises recession risk enough to justify modest easing, but not the deep cuts markets price.
Underlying Inflation Still Elevated
- Core inflation pressures remain and likely sit above 3% based on underlying signals.
- Without recession risk, the Fed would have little case for easing despite slowing growth.