Wall Street, tech and energy during Trump’s second term
Nov 13, 2024
auto_awesome
Brooke Masters, U.S. financial editor for the Financial Times, and Stephen Morris, San Francisco Bureau Chief for the same publication, dive into the potential winners and losers in corporate America under a second Trump administration. They explore how Wall Street might adapt with new regulations impacting private equity and traditional banks. The discussion includes Silicon Valley's rising political clout, particularly Elon Musk's influence. Varying energy policy shifts between Biden and Trump are analyzed, predicting significant investment dynamics for oil, gas, and renewables.
Wall Street is optimistic about Trump's potential deregulation, anticipating increased bank profitability and a surge in mergers and acquisitions due to relaxed capital requirements.
Tech companies foresee a favorable shift in regulatory scrutiny, which could invigorate deal-making activities and alleviate concerns over antitrust challenges under a second Trump administration.
Deep dives
Impact of Trump's Election on Wall Street
The election of Donald Trump has elicited an optimistic response from Wall Street, with significant jumps in bank stocks and a renewed sense of excitement regarding dealmaking. The expectation is that stringent regulations imposed during the Biden administration will be relaxed, particularly concerning capital requirements and the oversight from the SEC. Banks are hopeful that Trump's administration will shift away from proposals like the Basel III endgame, which necessitated higher capital reserves, thereby facilitating easier operations and encouraging more mergers and acquisitions. Additionally, anticipated tax cuts and potential tariff adjustments could stimulate investment, although concerns about inflation from tariffs remain a significant consideration.
Regulatory Landscape Shifts for Big Tech
Big tech companies have experienced substantial growth in market value over the past few years, but they also face increased scrutiny under Biden's active antitrust policies. With Trump’s return to power, there is optimism in Silicon Valley that the regulatory landscape will shift towards a more favorable environment for mergers and acquisitions, allowing large tech firms to expand without fear of antitrust challenges. This change is expected to rejuvenate deal-making conversations among private equity and venture capitalists, who eye potential acquisitions with renewed interest. However, the outlook on tariffs remains cautious, as variations in trade policies could significantly impact hardware manufacturers in the tech sector.
Energy Sector's Response to Political Changes
The energy sector, particularly oil and gas, anticipates a positive shift under Trump's leadership, moving away from the regulatory restrictions that characterized the Biden administration. Companies involved in fossil fuels are hopeful that policies regarding methane emissions and drilling regulations will be relaxed, creating new opportunities for exploration and production. In contrast, the renewable energy sector is bracing for potential downturns, as previous momentum may slow due to reduced federal support and investment. Nonetheless, despite challenges, the nuclear power sector seems poised to benefit from bipartisan support, although public funding may face cutbacks, affecting future expansion.
Who will corporate America's winners and losers be under four more years of Donald Trump? This week, the FT’s Brooke Masters, Stephen Morris and Jamie Smyth explain what changes a second Trump administration will bring to three crucial sectors: Wall Street, tech and energy.
On X, follow Brooke Masters (@brookeamasters), Stephen Morris (@sjhmorris), Jamie Smyth (@JamieSmythF) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.