Two economic experts discuss their forecasts for the economy in 2024, including a possible recession, a housing market bubble, inflation, and interest rates.
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Quick takeaways
Contrasting opinions on the possibility of a recession in 2024, with one expert predicting a softer landing and the other suggesting a potential downturn or recession.
Concerns about housing bubbles in certain areas of the country, but overall stability expected in the national housing market in 2024.
Deep dives
Divergent outlooks on the U.S. economy in 2024
In this podcast episode, two market experts provide contrasting views on the direction of the U.S. economy in 2024. Joe LaVornia, a bear in this scenario, expects a sluggish year with job losses and a deteriorating economic landscape. On the other hand, Kenny Pokari, a bull, remains generally optimistic about the economy but cautions about some concerning signs in the first quarter. Both experts discuss the possibility of a recession with differing opinions, with Pokari predicting a softer landing rather than a full-blown recession. LaVornia, however, sees mixed economic signs and suggests a potential downturn or recession. They also discuss the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with Pokari expecting only minor adjustments and LaVornia anticipating both bond yields falling and stock prices declining. The experts also touch on the political implications of rate cuts in an election year, where they discuss potential views of political bias and the Fed's caution in influencing the election.
Housing market expectations for 2024
The housing market, which experienced explosive growth in previous years, slowed down in 2023. The experts discuss their thoughts on the housing market in 2024, with Pokari mentioning potential housing bubbles in certain areas of the country, such as big cities and regions with high migration. He expects some stabilization in housing prices as new construction increases. However, he doesn't anticipate a crash like the one seen in 2007-2008. Overall, he suggests that housing prices need to contract as mortgage rates return to more normal levels. Despite concerns about housing bubbles in specific areas, the experts believe that the national housing market should be relatively stable.
Unanswered questions and future considerations
The podcast concludes with the acknowledgment that there are many unanswered questions and uncertainties ahead for the U.S. economy in 2024. The experts touch on the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the political implications of such actions in an election year. They also highlight the need to monitor the housing market, particularly areas experiencing potential housing bubbles. Overall, the episode emphasizes the divergent perspectives on the U.S. economy in 2024 and the importance of staying informed about key economic indicators and trends.
Two economic experts discuss their forecasts for the economy in 2024 including predictions on a possible recession, a housing market bubble, inflation and interest rates. Get the facts first on Morning Wire.
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