The Intelligence from The Economist Not so Pacific: the frightening prospect of war over Taiwan
Mar 9, 2023
Anton LaGuardia, the diplomatic editor for The Economist, dives into the escalating tensions between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, highlighting the growing risk of conflict and its potential global economic impact. He discusses the U.S. military's strategic preparations and training aimed at deterring aggression, while also reflecting on Taiwan's crucial role in global supply chains. Additionally, LaGuardia touches on political unrest in Mexico, where protests are erupting against threats to electoral integrity and discussions around exonerating victims of historical witch trials in Connecticut.
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Rising Tensions Over Taiwan
- The risk of a Sino-American war over Taiwan is escalating, with increased talk of war from both sides.
- China's growing military power, coupled with Xi Jinping's alignment with Russia, contributes to this tension.
Invasion Timeline and US Stance
- Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be invasion-capable by 2027.
- While war isn't inevitable, the US must prepare to fight and win if deterrence fails, says Admiral John Aquilino.
Potential Conflict Scenarios
- A conflict could begin with a blockade, island seizure, or missile attack, escalating to a full-scale amphibious invasion.
- All sides face difficult decisions, including whether to preemptively strike American forces in Japan or Guam.