E147 - Modeling is Dead

Dan Shan, an expert in betting line creation, discusses his journey from childhood bets at dog tracks to professional forensic valuation. He emphasizes the importance of manual adjustments based on qualitative factors, arguing that reliance on models can be limiting. The conversation delves into market efficiency, revealing how historical data shapes strategies. Shan also critiques closing line value as a success metric, highlighting the impact of bettor segments on line movements. His insights advocate for adaptive strategies in the ever-evolving landscape of sports betting.