Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from Equity Management Associates to discuss the current economic macro picture, including rising inflation and potential economic depression despite subdued market crashes. Lepard expresses skepticism towards government statistics suggesting a lack of real growth since 2008 and warns of risks for investors holding traditional assets due to high stock valuations caused by the Federal Reserve’s policies like zero interest rates and quantitative easing.

The conversation then shifts into the importance of liquidity in driving the stock market and the potential implications for the bond market and US federal government spending. Lepard expresses concern about a potential debt doom loop as rising interest rates could result in yield curve control, leading to inflation. They also discuss Trump’s economic policies and the potential impact on the U.S. dollar.

They further debate the current state of inflation and its future developments, with Lepard predicting another wave due to increased government spending. Larry discusses the underperformance of miners in both gold and Bitcoin markets and the shift towards gold as a reserve currency due to mistrust in the US dollar’s stability. Lastly, Lawrence discusses his upcoming book on monetary issues and the importance of sound money.

Time Stamp Reference
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Inflation Metrics
2:25 – Equity Valuations?
9:00 – Capital Concentration
12:08 – Excessive Liquidity
16:19 – Bond Markets & Deficits
22:16 – Cutbacks & Obligations
24:24 – Trump & Lower Dollar
31:10 – Inflation & Fed Q.E.
34:28 – Next Rate Print?
36:30 – Bitcoin & Tether
39:54 – Trump’s Goals & Caveats
42:39 – Miners Underperformance
52:45 – China’s Gold Demands
56:21 – Silver Supply Picture
59:38 – Commodities & Value
1:02:48 – Feb. Book & Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

• Lawrence voices skepticism towards official growth figures since 2008, warning of risks for traditional asset holders due to high valuations from Federal Reserve policies.
• He also expresses concern over potential debt doom loop from rising interest rates and yield curve control, which could lead to inflation.
• The importance of liquidity in driving stock markets, with a shift towards gold as a reserve currency due to mistrust in US dollar’s stability.

Guest Links:
Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT
Website: http://www.ema2.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard

Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.

Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.

Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.