
The Memo by Howard Marks Cockroaches in the Coal Mine
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Nov 6, 2025 Howard Marks dives into the unsettling world of credit markets, using cockroaches and canaries as metaphors for early warning signs. He highlights how recent bankruptcies expose deeper risks in private credit, urging a balance between investment and prudence. The discussion examines the psychology of risk tolerance, illustrating how good times lead to dangerous complacency and potential fraud. Ultimately, he advocates for higher lending standards to navigate the precarious landscape of sub-investment grade markets.
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Markets' Single-Topic Obsession
- Markets obsess over a single topic at a time, amplifying focus on recent events.
- The recent string of sub-investment grade credit episodes drew outsized attention disproportionate to normal default rates.
Spreads Compensate For Real Credit Risk
- Yield spreads in sub-investment grade debt exist because they compensate for real credit risk.
- Defaults and occasional frauds are an inherent part of bearing that credit risk for profit.
The Cycle Of Risk Attitudes
- Investor psychology swings widely between risk appetite and aversion across cycles.
- Good times breed complacency and aggressive bidding while bad times reveal carelessness and elevate standards.







