The Memo by Howard Marks

Cockroaches in the Coal Mine

221 snips
Nov 6, 2025
Howard Marks dives into the unsettling world of credit markets, using cockroaches and canaries as metaphors for early warning signs. He highlights how recent bankruptcies expose deeper risks in private credit, urging a balance between investment and prudence. The discussion examines the psychology of risk tolerance, illustrating how good times lead to dangerous complacency and potential fraud. Ultimately, he advocates for higher lending standards to navigate the precarious landscape of sub-investment grade markets.
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INSIGHT

Markets' Single-Topic Obsession

  • Markets obsess over a single topic at a time, amplifying focus on recent events.
  • The recent string of sub-investment grade credit episodes drew outsized attention disproportionate to normal default rates.
INSIGHT

Spreads Compensate For Real Credit Risk

  • Yield spreads in sub-investment grade debt exist because they compensate for real credit risk.
  • Defaults and occasional frauds are an inherent part of bearing that credit risk for profit.
INSIGHT

The Cycle Of Risk Attitudes

  • Investor psychology swings widely between risk appetite and aversion across cycles.
  • Good times breed complacency and aggressive bidding while bad times reveal carelessness and elevate standards.
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