The Milk Road Show Bitcoin Has Entered a Bear Market? Here’s What the Onchain Data Shows w/ Julio Moreno
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Dec 16, 2025 Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, dives into Bitcoin's on-chain data and its implications for the market. He identifies the bear market's onset in November, driven by shifts in accumulation among large holders. Discussing multi-year demand waves linked to ETFs and corporate treasuries, he highlights negative ETF flows and whale selling behavior. Julio also analyzes market fluctuations and volatility, indicating a potential for a milder bear market this cycle.
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Demand Trend Turned Down In Early November
- On-chain demand indicators flipped in early November and signaled a transition to a bear market.
- Large investors reduced accumulation and the demand trend moved decisively downward.
Three 2024 Demand Waves Then A Sharp Slowdown
- CryptoQuant's 'apparent demand' shows three 2024 demand waves tied to ETFs, the election, and corporate treasuries.
- After the October liquidation shock, demand growth slowed to its weakest pace since early 2024.
Spot ETF Flows Have Turned Net Negative
- ETF holdings growth mirrored those demand waves but flipped to net selling in Q4 2025.
- ETF flows that had accelerated in 2024 became net negative, reducing a key institutional buyer base.