BJJ Mental Models Mini Ep. 85: Certainty Heuristic
Dec 18, 2025
Explore the certainty heuristic, our tendency to prefer simple answers, even when they're wrong. Discover how con artists exploit this bias to manipulate critical thinking. Delve into why humans crave certainty, especially under stress, and how true experts often provide nuanced responses rather than absolutes. In the context of jiu-jitsu coaching, learn how oversimplified instructions can overlook important details. Embrace the importance of questioning overly certain advice to foster deeper understanding.
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Why Certainty Feels Irresistible
- The certainty heuristic makes us prefer simple, definite answers even when they're wrong.
- This bias evolved because certainty improved survival, so we gravitate toward confident-sounding solutions.
How Con Artists Weaponize Certainty
- Con artists use absolute certainty in their pitch to bypass critical thinking and win trust.
- Steve Kwan explains that desperation makes people especially vulnerable to those confident-sounding scams.
Experts Speak With Caveats
- Real experts often refuse to give absolute guarantees because the truth usually depends on context.
- Frequent caveats and 'it depends' statements are signs of genuine expertise, not weakness.