Is the world giving up on green hydrogen? | Hydrogen energy is having an identity crisis but who’s to blame?
Mar 11, 2025
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Bridget Van Dorsten, a principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie specializing in hydrogen market trends, and Carl Cho, director of Clean Energy Finance at Citibank with over a decade of clean energy experience, dive into the identity crisis facing hydrogen energy. They discuss the U.S. transition toward blue hydrogen and the lag in green hydrogen project advancements. Roadblocks like financing, offtake uncertainty, and scaling challenges are explored. The duo also debates localized projects versus large-scale infrastructure, pondering hydrogen's future role in energy.
The US is set to become the leading blue hydrogen market by 2025 due to favorable policy developments and significant investments.
Despite the promise of green hydrogen, financing hurdles and market demand uncertainties hinder the realization of announced projects.
Deep dives
Hydrogen Market Overview and Hype Cycle
The hydrogen market has experienced a significant amount of hype recently, with ambitious forecasts predicting cost reductions for electrolyzers. Despite the excitement, progress in actual project realizations remains slow, as only a small fraction of the announced future capacity has come to fruition. While 144 million tons per annum of low carbon hydrogen projects have been announced, only 6 million tons have moved past the final investment decision stage. This scenario reveals a gap between optimism and actual implementation, highlighting the complexities and challenges of establishing a new low-carbon hydrogen industry.
Cost Reduction and Infrastructure Challenges
The conversation around hydrogen production emphasizes the importance of not only reducing the costs of electrolyzers but also addressing the overall infrastructure needed for hydrogen generation. Project management and the establishment of manufacturing capacities are critical to scaling production effectively. Significant reductions in production costs for solar panels and battery storage took years of infrastructure development and learning curves; similar processes are essential for hydrogen. Therefore, the industry must focus on developing the necessary facilities and processes to support the growth of hydrogen technology.
The Role of Blue and Green Hydrogen
The ongoing discussion about blue versus green hydrogen highlights the industry's efforts to decarbonize existing hydrogen production. Blue hydrogen, produced with natural gas and carbon capture, has gained traction in regions like North America, partially due to favorable regulatory conditions and incentives. Meanwhile, green hydrogen projects are still being explored, driven by corporate commitments, but are seen as delayed rather than abandoned. The political environment and varying incentives across regions, particularly in Europe and Canada, play a crucial role in shaping the future of both blue and green hydrogen initiatives.
Financing Challenges and Buyer Uncertainty
Financing for hydrogen projects is complicated by a mismatch between production ambitions and actual market demand for hydrogen. Many would-be buyers are hesitant to commit to long-term contracts due to uncertainties in cost and the lack of regulatory incentives to adopt green hydrogen. This creates a 'chicken and egg' dilemma, where securing offtake agreements is essential for attracting investment, but demand often relies on established production models. Until buyers see a clear demand or regulatory push for green hydrogen, the transition remains slow, affecting project financing and market dynamics.
In 2025, the US will consolidate its position as a blue-focused hydrogen market, driven by policy developments under a second Trump administration. A surge in blue hydrogen investment – with at least three large-scale blue hydrogen projects reaching FID – will see the US emerge as the world's leading blue hydrogen producer. So what about the much-hyped green hydrogen? Has the industry given up on it?
To find out, host Sylvia Leyva Martinez, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, is joined by hydrogen analyst Bridget Van Dorsten. Bridget explains why, despite massive project announcements, only a fraction of hydrogen projects have actually moved forward. What are the biggest roadblocks to deployment? Already in 2025 we’re seeing financing hurdles, off-take uncertainty, and the challenges of scaling both green and blue hydrogen. To unpack the financial hurdles, Carl Cho - Director of Clean Energy Finance at Citibank – also joins the show. He breaks down the "hype cycle" surrounding hydrogen and why investors are hesitant to commit to long-term deals.
Plus, Bridget and Carl look at the economics of hydrogen production, the learning curve of building large-scale infrastructure, and whether small, localised projects could be a better approach. They also debate economies of scale vs. economies of production and how hydrogen might fit into the future of energy. Sylvia thinks it could be better suited to a localised role in microgrids, industrial hubs, but what about data center energy demands?
For more on this, check out the Lens Hydrogen report from Wood Mac. Lens is a data analytics platform with sector-specific insights to help you power your Business Intelligence tools. Find it at woodmac.com/lens
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