Jeremy Bowen, the BBC's international editor and seasoned expert in global affairs, joins the discussion on the newly brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. He delves into the unique implications of this agreement for Lebanon and Israel, contrasting it with the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The conversation highlights the geopolitical stakes, including Iran's influence and the roles of global leaders like Biden and Macron. Bowen also examines local sentiments and the challenges faced by the Lebanese army in maintaining peace, underscoring that addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is crucial for lasting stability.
The 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah involves a significant role for the Lebanese army and UNIFIL to enforce demilitarization.
While the ceasefire can temporarily halt fighting, the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict complicates prospects for long-term regional stability.
Deep dives
Details of the Ceasefire Agreement
A 60-day ceasefire agreement has been established between Israel and Hezbollah, mandating Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, while Israel will also gradually retreat. The Lebanese army will take on a significant role in managing the area, supported by the United Nations Peacekeeping Force (UNIFIL), which has had a presence in Lebanon for years. This agreement includes stipulations on arms possession, stating that only the Lebanese army can bear arms in southern Lebanon, and provisions for Israeli military action if Hezbollah is perceived as a threat in the border area. This complex arrangement aims to enforce peace and demilitarization in a region historically plagued by conflict.
Motivations Behind the Timing of the Ceasefire
The ceasefire has come at a time when Israel perceives Hezbollah to be significantly weakened and believes it has achieved a tactical advantage in the ongoing conflict. Previous opportunities for a ceasefire had existed months earlier, but Hezbollah's leadership misjudged the evolving Israeli response following the October 7 attacks. Israel's military success led it to pursue a ceasefire only after demonstrating strength against Hezbollah, while diplomatic efforts by the US and France played a crucial role in facilitating this agreement. The situation suggests that both parties have reached a point where certain strategic objectives necessitate a temporary halt to the fighting.
Implications for Long-Term Stability
While the ceasefire brings a temporary pause, the root causes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remain unaddressed, making long-term stability elusive. The negotiations surrounding Gaza are stalled and lack the momentum seen in the Lebanon deal, indicating a challenging path ahead for any comprehensive peace efforts. Additionally, the dynamics within Lebanon highlight the vulnerabilities of the Lebanese army, which is tasked with enforcing the ceasefire despite significant constraints, raising questions about its effectiveness. The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran, suggest that this ceasefire may serve more as a strategic recalibration for Israel rather than a definitive step towards lasting peace in the broader region.
Today, we look at the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah and what it means for the Middle East.
A deal to end thirteen months of fighting in Lebanon came into affect on Wednesday morning. It follows Israel’s land invasion of Lebanon in October in response to rocket attacks from Hezbollah.
Adam is joined by the BBC’s international editor Jeremy Bowen, and Jonny Dymond, host of The Conflict podcast. They discuss how the deal was brokered, what it means for Israel and Lebanon, and why the deal doesn’t extend to the war in Gaza.
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Newscast brings you daily analysis of the latest political news stories from the BBC. It was presented by Adam Fleming. It was made by Chris Flynn with Anna Harris and Bella Saltiel. The technical producer was Michael Regaard. The assistant editor is Chris Gray. The editor is Sam Bonham.
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