Marketplace All-in-One "Uncertainty" marked this year's economy. What about 2026?
Dec 29, 2025
Stephen Juno, a Senior Economist at Bank of America, dives deep into the uncertain economic landscape of 2026. He shares bold predictions about the U.S. economy potentially outperforming others, while inflation remains stubbornly high. Juno discusses the intricate dynamics of the labor market and the future of tariffs under changing political winds. The conversation also explores the surge in adjustable-rate mortgage applications, shedding light on the trade-offs borrowers face. Get ready for insightful forecasts and eye-opening analysis!
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U.S. Growth Has Multiple Tailwinds
- The U.S. economy is likely to continue outperforming peers into 2026 due to fiscal stimulus, easing Fed policy, and AI-driven capital spending.
- These tailwinds could sustain above-trend growth despite recent volatility and policy shocks.
Inflation Sticky, Jobs Recover With Less Uncertainty
- Inflation will likely remain above target and prove stubborn even if tariff-related effects ease later in the year.
- The labor market should firm as uncertainty fades and businesses resume broader hiring and investment.
Slow Job Growth From Uncertainty And Supply
- Recent slower job growth reflects both policy uncertainty and weaker labor supply from reduced immigration.
- With less policy volatility in 2026, hiring should broaden and offset some labor-supply constraints.