We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network BTC254: Bitcoin & Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen Q4 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast)
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Nov 19, 2025 
In this discussion, Luke Gromen, the founder of FFTT LLC and a macro strategist, dives into the precarious state of U.S. finances and emerging global economic trends. He highlights the risks tied to short-term debt issuance and Japan's shifting dynamics. The conversation explores how Bitcoin serves as a warning signal for liquidity tightening, while gold's allure grows amid geopolitical tensions. Luke also examines the unexpected challenges in the tech sector and the implications of changing energy demands on inflation.
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U.S. Facing A Growing Poly Crisis
- The U.S. is heading toward a multi-pronged "poly crisis" driven by fiscal strain and tightening overnight funding markets.
- Short-term Treasury issuance and a growing TGA are creating persistent liquidity stress similar to 2019.
Japan Signals Global Yield Shifts
- Japan's rising yields and weakening yen resemble emerging-market stress and influence global long-term yield direction.
- The dollar/yen carry dynamics remain a major driver of global rates and risk-on/risk-off swings.
Shale Decline Meets Rising Oil Demand
- U.S. shale supply growth is rolling over while oil demand is rising faster than expected, adding inflationary pressure.
- Energy tightness is a significant, underappreciated inflation risk for the macro outlook.