Bloomberg Talks MacroPolicy Perspectives President Julia Coronado Talks Fed Strategy
Nov 28, 2025
Julia Coronado, the president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, dives into the Fed's strategy and the shifting labor market. She suggests a bimodal outlook with potential rate cuts depending on labor conditions. Coronado forecasts solid growth for Q3 with a slowdown into Q4 and highlights the impact of tariffs on Mexico and Texas's economy. She notes that rising unemployment could prompt a December rate cut and shares insights on Texas's transit issues, rounding off with a light note about college football.
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Bimodal Fed Outlook
- The Fed faces a bimodal path: either one-and-done cuts or continued easing into an accommodative stance.
- Julia Coronado warns the labor market turn could force cuts beyond neutral into 2025–26.
Lower Trend Growth Ahead
- Structural factors like restrictive immigration will lower US trend growth into 2026.
- Expect real GDP in 2026 to be around low single digits, not the 3%+ rates seen earlier.
Fed Balances Insurance Cut And Inflation Risks
- Fed leadership leans to one more 'insurance' cut while worrying inflation may stay nearer 3%.
- Persistent tariffs and prices risk embedding higher inflation expectations.