247. Can Interest Rates Fall to Zero on the Free Market
Nov 12, 2024
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Discover the historical debates surrounding interest rates and usury, highlighting perspectives from great thinkers like Aristotle and Aquinas. Explore the intriguing concept of time preference and how it shapes individual decisions in lending. Delve into the implications of interest in a fiat currency system versus a hard money approach. Learn how a free market could potentially eliminate interest rates altogether. This intellectual journey sheds light on the complexities of economics and the behavior of societies.
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Quick takeaways
The historical opposition to interest rates, rooted in cultural and religious beliefs, highlights the evolving perception of usury over time.
The time preference theory illustrates how individuals' immediate gratification impacts interest rates, revealing a dynamic market shaped by societal values.
Deep dives
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Historical Opposition to Interest Rates
The podcast delves into the historical context of opposition to interest rates, often termed usury, highlighting the varied views across cultures and religions. It mentions significant historical events, including the Council of Nicaea's prohibition of usury in 325 AD and subsequent extensions of these bans in Christian doctrine. Key philosophers like Aristotle and Aquinas are discussed for their arguments against interest, with Aristotle contending that charging interest is against the nature of money. However, these arguments are presented as largely refutable in contemporary economic thought, as interest continued to be creatively reintegrated into financial contracts despite religious prohibitions.
Time Preference Theory of Interest
The podcast introduces the time preference theory, which explains that individuals value immediate satisfaction more than future gain, and this influences their willingness to accept interest rates. Turgot is highlighted for his assertion that subjective value is essential in the conversation about interest rates, implying individuals would prefer receiving a smaller amount now over a larger amount later. This discrepancy in time preference creates opportunities for lending and borrowing, establishing a market for interest. The discussion emphasizes how personal and variable valuations of time lead to a dynamic interest rate market that adapts to societal conditions.
Cultural Implications of Interest Rates
A critical examination of the implications of interest rates reveals a historical tendency for lower interest rates to correlate with higher standards of living and societal progress. The podcast posits that declining interest rates signify rising prosperity and lower time preferences among populations, fostering greater saving and investment. However, it contrasts this with the reality of 20th-century interest rates, which did not decline as expected, probing potential cultural shifts towards a higher time preference. The discussion concludes by contemplating a hypothetical world where historical traumas were absent, suggesting that a different trajectory of capital accumulation and interest rates could lead to an abundant, low-time-preference society.
Dr. Saifedean Ammous discusses the history of interest lending and the economic explanations for it, culminating in the Austrian time preference theory of interest rates, which he uses to propose an original explanation of how interest rates can naturally be eliminated in a free market with hard money. Presented at Professor Hans-Hermann Hoppe's Property and Freedom Society conference in September 2024.
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