Supply Shock

Powell's Bullish Signal To Markets | Weekly Roundup

May 4, 2024
This week's podcast discusses Powell's bullish signal to markets post FOMC & QRA, the rise of distrust in institutions, Japan's Minsky moment, the rise of passive investing, Layer 2 solutions like Kinto, market distortions caused by quantitative easing, challenges in finding reliable signals in the market, and the intersection of retail and institutional participation in the market.
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INSIGHT

QR Analysis

  • Overall debt issuance was higher than expected, which is bad for liquidity.
  • However, the composition of debt (bills vs. coupons) remained unchanged, mitigating the impact.
INSIGHT

Policymaker Actions

  • Policymakers are aware of liquidity issues and are taking steps to address them.
  • The QT rollback and Yen intervention signal a focus on supporting liquidity.
ADVICE

Market Advice

  • Buy the dip in the current market structure until the election.
  • Policymakers will likely continue supporting the markets through then.
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