This podcast explores the shift in value creation and capture in generative AI, discusses how startups can create value in the AI field and the division of AI value capture between different layers. It also covers the concept of defensibility in the AI era, the economic impact of AI, and the potential value generated.
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Quick takeaways
Generative AI startups can explore and cater to new human behaviors, resulting in improvements in time, cost, and performance within existing markets.
Startups have the advantage of exploring new user behaviors and experiences, offering opportunities to capitalize on emerging use cases in the generative AI market.
Deep dives
The Value of Generative AI
Generative AI is seen as a game-changer that can bring a fundamental shift in the computing era. Unlike previous AI advancements, generative AI startups have the opportunity to explore and cater to new human behaviors and experiences. This has resulted in significant improvements in time, cost, and performance within large existing markets. The rise of generative AI is seen as the start of a new super cycle comparable to the advent of the microchip or the internet.
Uncertain Value Distribution
Determining where value will accrue in the generative AI market remains uncertain. Infrastructure vendors have captured a significant portion of the revenue, while application companies struggle with retention, differentiation, and margins. Model providers, such as OpenAI, have made significant contributions, but their revenue is still relatively small compared to their usage and impact. It is unclear if there will be a long-term winner-takes-all dynamic in the generative AI market, as traditional modes of defensibility are not durable.
Startups vs. Incumbents
Startups have a unique advantage in creating value in the generative AI market. They have the ability to explore new user behaviors and experiences, which often lead to massive market shifts. In the AI era, incumbents are adapting faster and launching applications sooner than in the SaaS era. However, the lack of systemic modes and the rapid adoption of AI present opportunities for startups to capitalize on emerging use cases. Trust and data privacy concerns may favor incumbents in enterprise adoption, but startups still have potential to capture value in the application layer.
An exploration of defensibility, value capture and economic structure in artificial intelligence.
With excerpts from:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ai-has-finally-become-transformative-humans-scale-language-model-6a67e641
https://a16z.com/2023/08/03/the-economic-case-for-generative-ai-and-foundation-models/
https://a16z.com/2023/01/19/who-owns-the-generative-ai-platform/
https://a16z.com/2023/08/11/cloud-lessons-for-the-ai-era/
https://a16z.com/2023/08/30/financial-opportunity-of-ai/
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