The Intelligence from The Economist Truce and consequences: a fragile ceasefire in Iran
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Jun 24, 2025 
Josie DeLapp, Middle East editor, and Shishang Joshi, Defense editor, dive into the complexities surrounding a fragile ceasefire in Iran. They discuss Iran's aggressive military actions, including strikes on a U.S. air base, and the implications for regional stability. The conversation touches on Iran's persistent nuclear ambitions despite setbacks and the delicate balance of diplomacy. They also highlight NATO's dilemmas over defense spending amid escalating global tensions, linking urgent geopolitical issues with national security strategies.
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Fragile Ceasefire in Iran Conflict
- The ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict is fragile with missile strikes continuing shortly after it was declared.
- Both Iran and Israel have incentives to avoid prolonged conflict but tensions remain very high.
Why Both Sides Might Pause
- Both Iran and Israel have strong reasons to pause the fighting as each feels it has met key military objectives.
- Iran is internally weak and Israel has achieved its target strikes, making a temporary halt plausible.
Impact on Iran's Nuclear Ambitions
- Iran's nuclear program suffered extensive damage from the strikes but core expertise and knowledge remain intact.
- Iran may accelerate secretive nuclear efforts or withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if feeling weakened.