Investing With IBD Ep. 350 Key Market Trends To Track In 2026
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Dec 10, 2025 Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac and market historian, brings his expertise on seasonal market patterns. He dives into the Fed's upcoming strategies and the importance of the election cycle for traders. Hirsch explains the January trifecta—highlighting the predictive power of the Santa Claus Rally. He discusses the contrast in consumer sentiment versus spending data, and outlines key risks for 2026, including geopolitical issues. Seasoned traders will appreciate his tactical insights on sector opportunities and seasonal strategies.
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Post-Election Year Strength
- The post-election year often produces the strongest gains in the four-year presidential cycle, historically delivering double-digit returns.
- Jeffrey Hirsch expects a continued bullish bias into 2026 with potential 8–12% gains and upside to 20% under favorable conditions.
When Seasonality Loses To Macro Shocks
- Jeffrey Hirsch recounts past market shocks like the VIX spike in April and 1998 LTCM to show seasonality can be overwhelmed.
- He uses these examples to argue other macro forces sometimes dominate seasonal patterns.
Check The January Trifecta
- Use the January trifecta (Santa Claus Rally, first five trading days, January Barometer) as a directional indicator for the year.
- Treat the trifecta as a signal: when all three are positive historically the S&P has been up ~90% with strong average gains.
