The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series What Would a Conflict in Taiwan Look Like? || Peter Zeihan
Dec 16, 2025
A potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan sparks a heated discussion. Both Biden and Trump signal U.S. military intervention, revealing geopolitical stakes. Peter delves into the logistics of an amphibious assault and the harsh realities of the Taiwan Strait. Internal political tensions in China could hinder strategic caution. Taiwan's own deterrent strategies emerge, including a potential crude nuclear option. Moreover, China's naval limitations and energy vulnerabilities could significantly impact their plans. The fragility of the semiconductor supply chain adds another layer of complexity.
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U.S. Policy On Taiwan Is Now Clear
- The U.S. has abandoned deliberate ambiguity and both Biden and Trump say they'd intervene militarily and economically if Taiwan were attacked.
- China dismisses this as unlikely and expects only moderate sanctions, misreading U.S. resolve.
Taiwan Strait Crossing Is Logistically Daunting
- An invasion requires a huge amphibious operation across a stormy 100+ mile Taiwan Strait and would take weeks or months to stage.
- That delay gives Taiwan and other actors time to react and disrupt the assault before landing.
Taiwan's Nuclear Reactor Implies Latent Capability
- Taiwan has operated a nuclear power reactor for decades and could technically build crude nuclear weapons if it chose to.
- That capability would serve as a potent deterrent during a threatened invasion.