The Long View
Carl Tannenbaum: Settling Into 'Soft-Landing Territory'
Jul 30, 2024
Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist for Northern Trust and former risk chief at the Federal Reserve, shares insightful perspectives on current economic turbulence. He discusses the complexities of trade policies, specifically critiquing tariffs and their impact on inflation and interest rates. The conversation delves into the evolving commercial real estate landscape post-COVID, and the financial lessons learned from recent banking collapses. Tannenbaum also explores the transformative role of AI in the economy and emphasizes the need for adaptive investment strategies.
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Quick takeaways
- The political climate surrounding the 2024 elections significantly influences economic forecasts, particularly in areas like trade, tariffs, and immigration policies.
- Tariffs, while intended to create fairer trade, may lead to higher consumer prices, potentially costing American households an additional $600 annually.
Deep dives
Political Impacts on Economic Outlook
The effects of the ongoing political climate, particularly in light of the 2024 elections, are crucial for understanding economic forecasts. Key policy areas include trade, immigration, taxes, climate change, and government spending. Economic models suggest that while predictions are challenging, it's essential to prepare for possible outcomes regardless of which political party gains power. The expectation is that both sides may maintain current trade restrictions, particularly towards China, which could contribute to rising inflation due to tariffs that are ultimately borne by consumers.
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