Bloomberg Tech US Eases Path for Nvidia to Sell H200s to China
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Jan 14, 2026 Beth Kindig, a tech analyst at IO Fund, dives into how U.S. policy shifts could empower Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China, discussing potential revenue and competitive dynamics. Emily Birnbaum sheds light on new legislation targeting non-consensual AI-generated images, exploring its implications for platforms. Plus, Anne-Marie Horden shares insights on the Supreme Court's influence on presidential trade authority. These discussions highlight critical intersections of technology, law, and international business.
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US Shifts To Case‑By‑Case Chip Exports
- The Commerce Department will review H200 export license requests case-by-case, replacing a prior presumption of denial.
- Companies must prove exports won't cause US shortages, avoid displacing US production, and enforce strict user controls.
50% Cap Hinges On Interpretation
- The new rule caps exports to China at no more than 50% of U.S. production, but interpretation matters.
- If the cap counts all-time output it's larger; if it counts future production only, exports will be far smaller.
China Could Dramatically Boost Nvidia
- Beth Kindig believes NVIDIA's China opportunity could be $25–50 billion annually, meaning analyst estimates may be too low.
- She argues NVIDIA is difficult to displace and remains the dominant provider for high-end GPUs.