Here's Why Here's Why Lower Oil Prices Create Winners and Losers
Nov 28, 2025
In this intriguing discussion, Julian Lee, Bloomberg's oil strategist known for his sharp insights into crude dynamics, analyzes the current oil market's shifting landscapes. He explains how rising supply from OPEC+ cuts and increased US output are driving prices down. Lee outlines the benefactors of lower oil prices, notably refiners, while highlighting the struggles faced by upstream independents and oil-reliant countries. Additionally, he assesses how current trends may impact the energy transition, suggesting that, despite lower prices, the shift to alternative energy sources remains strong.
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Supply Outpacing Demand Into 2026
- Global oil supply is rising while demand growth softens, pushing markets toward a surplus and lower prices.
- Major agencies and banks expect this imbalance to last into 2026 and possibly early 2027.
Producers' Outlook Diverges From Consensus
- OPEC+ producers present a different, more balanced outlook with stronger demand forecasts and weaker supply estimates.
- That producer view stands as an outlier versus consensus from the IEA, US DOE, and big banks.
Consumers Aren't Always The Main Winners
- Lower crude prices don't automatically translate into large consumer fuel savings, because refining and product dynamics matter.
- Refiners are currently the primary beneficiaries as they buy cheaper crude and earn more on processing margins.