What Could Crash the Housing Market?

Everything you need to know about the Housing Market!  full notes: https://horse-quart-a62.notion.site/H... Current state of the housing market MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, OCTOBER 2021: Housing starts slipped 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.520 million units last month. Permits for future homebuilding increased 4.0% to a rate of 1.650 million units in October. Starts have declined from the 1.725 million unit-pace scaled in March, which was more than a 14-1/2-year high. There is a huge backlog of houses authorized for construction but not yet started. Single-family housing starts, which account for the largest share of the housing market, dropped 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.039 million units last month. The fourth-straight monthly decline pushed starts to the lowest level since August 2020.  U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in October while the number of houses authorized for construction but not yet started jumped to a 15-year high.  Zoning problems, higher land costs, a lack of labor, and inflation has inflated the cost of raw building materials  As Ali Wolf writes “Every top market is considered seriously undersupplied as developmental delays hold back more vacant developed lots from hitting the market and builders scoop up available lots as quickly as possible”  There are not enough homes - not enough resale inventory and not enough new ones being built.   What is driving what we are seeing? Low mortgage rates: 60% are below 4% - thats LOW! Also homes are expensive - 79% of all homes sold are more than $300k There is also supply chain pressure  What does into housing? Raw materials: and there is a shortage in absolutely everything. See here for a full breakdown: https://www.nahb.org/-/media/NAHB/new...Labor: They are aging out and there is a lot of competition in the space.   There is also pressure from money entering the market from crypto and stock market gains (which is neither good or bad, just a pressure).  Build to Rent "Investors are now working with developers directly to produce build-for-rent homes that have a physical appearance closer to a suburban neighborhood, but are marketed to renters rather than owners." One in 20 new homes comes into being expressly for the purpose of rental living--almost double the historical share of new homes built for rent. The number of single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) construction starts reached its highest quarterly volume on record during the third quarter of 2021. Build-for-rent operators snapping up 15% of raw land in Florida & outbidding home builders on deals across many markets  Essentially, there are not enough homes - and its very expensive to build homes due to a combo supply chain crisis and labor/wage crunch. But build to rent is also creating headaches too.