The Intelligence from The Economist A model result: our French-election series begins
Feb 3, 2022
Arjun Ramani, Global business and economics correspondent for The Economist, dives into the rising global debt crisis and its connection to increasing interest rates. He discusses how these rate hikes could lead to a staggering $20 trillion in interest obligations by 2026, impacting governments and households alike. The conversation also highlights the unique trends in the French electoral landscape, revealing how local voter concerns clash with political discourse, alongside an intriguing uptick in marriage rates during the pandemic in Saudi Arabia.
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French Election Prediction
- No incumbent French president has been re-elected in two decades.
- However, the Economist's model predicts Emmanuel Macron is likely to break this pattern.
Suburban Battleground
- The Economist's Paris bureau chief, Sophie Petter, visited Saint-Brice, a Parisian suburb, to understand the election.
- Saint-Brice represents the average French voter, torn between Macron and the center-right candidate.
Polling Power
- The Economist's election model uses polls dating back to 1965 to predict outcomes.
- The model has been accurate in past elections, including the 2017 French election.