Paul Gurney on Metals Mania: Gold's Relentless Uplift, Copper's Supply Crunch, and an M&A Valuation Gap

Oct 17, 2025

Paul Gurney, an equity analyst at Beacon Securities specializing in metals, shares his insights on the current metals mania. He discusses the booming gold market driven by retail interest and currency concerns. Gurney highlights the tight copper market, emphasizing significant supply challenges and the high costs of project replacements. He identifies lithium as a hidden opportunity poised for rapid growth. The conversation also delves into the risks of overpaying in M&A and the impact of emerging U.S. policies on mineral development.

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INSIGHT

Momentum Can Quickly Inflate Risky Portfolios

Market momentum in metals can inflate concentrated portfolios into uncontrollable positions very quickly.
Paul Gurney warns that rapid rallies often lead to painful, fast corrections even as investors “buy the dip.”

ADVICE

Take Profits During Strong Rallies

Take profits during strong rallies instead of chasing every run-up.
Paul Gurney recommends profit-taking because high RSI levels precede swift, painful corrections.

INSIGHT

Gold Thesis Has Gone Mainstream

Gold's thesis shifted from contrarian to mainstream as macro concerns rose.
That mainstreaming has re-rated producers before the spot price fully normalizes, creating valuation gaps.

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This episode explores the current mania gripping the metals sector, featuring Paul Gurney of Beacon Securities, discussing everything from gold and silver to copper and Rare Earths. The conversation addresses the challenge of managing investment portfolios during high-momentum boom cycles, noting the painful, quick corrections that follow rising sentiment and the propensity of investors to "buy the dip".

Shifting focus to industrial commodities, the discussion examines the tight copper market, highlighting significant supply destruction and the fact that long-life assets are old and difficult—costing over $12 billion—to replace. Finally, Paul identifies lithium as an "off the radar" opportunity that could get tight quickly, arguing that the market may soon mirror the successful capital raises and subsequent re-rating recently seen among gold explorers.

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