The Brian Lehrer Show The Labor Market Proves Much Weaker
Sep 10, 2025
Ben Casselman, Chief Economics Correspondent for The New York Times, sheds light on startling job market revisions showing 911,000 fewer jobs created before March 2025. He discusses the challenges of accurately capturing labor data amidst political influences and budget constraints. Listeners share their anxieties about job security, reduced hours, and inflation's impact. The conversation also touches on the delayed effects of tariffs on pricing and the complex relationship between AI and job displacement, revealing a dynamic and shifting economic landscape.
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Why Annual Revisions Matter
- Annual revisions align survey estimates with state unemployment records and can change the job totals substantially.
- A million-job downward revision is large relative to reported additions even if small versus total employment.
Revisions Raise Measurement Doubts
- Two consecutive years of large negative revisions raise concerns about measurement quality.
- The unusually large revisions suggest real uncertainty in how well we track recent job growth.
Why Measurement Has Gotten Harder
- Rapid economic change and declining survey response rates make real-time measurement harder.
- Shrinking budgets at statistical agencies constrain modernization and accurate adjustments.