The Morgan Housel Podcast
The Psychology of Why Prediction Can Be So Hard
Mar 14, 2025
Prediction is trickier than we think, influenced by historical events and our own biases. Cultural backgrounds shape our emotional responses, complicating economic forecasts. Desperation can lead to misplaced faith in financial quick fixes during crises. The sunk cost fallacy looms large, often clouding judgment in decision-making. With fascinating examples from history and personal insights, this discussion uncovers the psychological dance of belief, hope, and the unpredictability of the future.
16:03
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Quick takeaways
- Understanding the unpredictability of significant events reveals the limitations of past data in making accurate future forecasts.
- Cultural differences greatly influence behavioral predictions, necessitating a wider perspective to avoid flawed assumptions in analyses.
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