Exploring the emotional cycle of traders and market sentiment, podcast dives into stages from optimism to fear and desperation. Emotions impact decision-making in trading. Learn to manage emotions and identify your emotional state at any point to improve trading outcomes.
Understanding the emotional cycle of traders involves transitioning from optimism to desperation, reflecting market sentiment and individual decision-making processes.
Recognizing different emotions at each stage of the market cycle helps traders manage their own emotions and adapt to prevailing market conditions.
Monitoring economic indicators is crucial for assessing the current market position and potential outcomes, especially in volatile times like the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Deep dives
Optimism, Excitement, and Buying Stocks
In this stage, traders experience optimism when they have a positive outlook on the stock market, leading to buying stocks based on good news or positive hunches. This optimism transitions into excitement as traders witness stocks moving up, leading to feelings of validation and anticipation of success. As professional traders are already long in this stage, retail traders are excited but not fully committed financially yet.
Buying the Dip and Euphoria
As the markets show favorable conditions, retail traders jump in to buy stocks, feeling confident and getting into a euphoric state where they believe everything they touch will bring profit. Buying the dip becomes a norm, and with a false sense of invincibility, traders start leveraging up and overestimating their abilities, reaching the peak of ego capital.
Anxiety, Denial, and Fear
The market starts to pull back, causing anxiety among traders as they experience first signs of weakness and begin to give back gains. Traders enter denial, refusing to accept the changing market conditions and trying to anchor to levels expecting a rebound. Fear sets in as the trend reverses, leading to confusion and indecision about the effectiveness of their trading strategies.
Investor Cycle Emotions and Market Phases
The podcast delves into the four stages of emotions and market phases that traders and investors experience throughout market cycles. It outlines the 14 emotional states from optimism to relief and how they reflect market sentiment. By understanding where one is in this cycle, individuals can better navigate their trading and investment decisions, aligning them with the prevailing market conditions.
Current Market Evaluation and Economic Outlook
The hosts analyze the current market situation and its potential trajectory, considering factors like the ongoing economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. They discuss the possibilities of being in the capitulation stage or anticipating relief and optimism. Additionally, the importance of monitoring economic indicators to gauge the market's true position in the cycle is emphasized, with a focus on the potential outcomes based on economic recovery or further downside risks.
In today’s episode, we will be breaking down the emotional cycle that traders must understand in order to deal with the challenges that they will face in the live markets.
Different market cycles tend to challenge the emotions of those traders and investors that choose to participate.
In fact, these market participants are the reason that these market cycles exist; because traders are human and humans are emotional beings!
Fear and greed drive the markets so not only do we have to learn how to control our own emotions, but we also have to recognize what the collective crowd is thinking.
By understanding how the collective crowd thinks and reacts during certain market cycles, we can start to read market sentiment a bit more clearly and even learn to identify our own emotional states with more clarity in the real-time.
So what are the emotions that make up the stages of the cycle that we will be discussing today?
Optimism
Excitement
Thrill
Euphoria
Anxiety
Denial
Fear
Desperation
Panic
Capitulation
Despondency
Depression
Hope
Relief
These emotions drive market sentiment at different stages of the market cycle! Emotions will also creep into your trading once you pull the trigger and can affect your decision-making processes!
You will walk away from this episode with a deeper understanding of each stage of this emotional cycle so that you can easily identify where you stand at any point in time and implement a means of managing the emotions that are present.
In This Episode You Will Learn
The fourteen emotions that make up the trader emotional cycle 09:25
Why euphoria is the point of maximum risk in the cycle 20:20
How fear of crystalizing losses can lead to sabotaging your trading plan 26:05
The point of the cycle where traders lose the most amount of money 28:28
How going through the lows of the cycle builds your resilience as a trader 36:52
How this emotional cycle plays out over the course of a trade 42:55
Some Things We Discuss
How the study of cycles applies to the stock market 06:15
Why we tend to remember bear market cycles more clearly 11:22
Why your reaction to panic and fear go to the subconscious level 23:30
The point when capital and wealth transfers from the retail to institutional portfolios 32:15
Where do we think the stock market is currently at in this cycle 51:40