The Daily Brief

WTO just sent a Warning!

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Apr 21, 2025
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INSIGHT

Global Trade Faces Major Contraction

  • WTO revised its global trade forecast to a 0.2% contraction due to aggressive US tariffs introduced by Donald Trump.
  • Trade uncertainty and fragmentation risk global GDP losses up to 7% by 2040 if current trends continue.
INSIGHT

Uncertainty's Hidden Trade Impact

  • Trade policy uncertainty makes forecasting global trade akin to predicting weather in a cyclone.
  • One-sixth of trade decline is due to uncertainty alone, not tariffs, highlighting the damage of unpredictability.
INSIGHT

Fed's Inflation-Growth Dilemma

  • Jerome Powell warns tariffs could cause longer-lasting inflation and slower growth due to disrupted supply chains.
  • US faces dilemma as interest rates can only target inflation or support employment, not both simultaneously.
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