Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, shares his insights on tariff uncertainties and their implications for the U.S. economy, warning of a potential recession in 2025. Jeffrey Rosenberg from BlackRock discusses the shifting investment landscape and expectations around Fed interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, NYC Mayoral Candidate Zohran Mamdani addresses housing affordability and community safety in his candidacy, emphasizing a balanced political identity to tackle city challenges.
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insights INSIGHT
Tariff Impact on Earnings and Economy
Tariffs have caused significant downward revisions to earnings for Q2 and Q3 for the S&P 500.
They disrupt normal currency-interest rate correlations and contribute to stagflation risks in the US economy.
insights INSIGHT
Fed Faces Stagflation Dilemma
The Fed faces a dilemma between slowing growth and rising inflation due to tariffs causing stagflation.
The dot plot indicates the Fed may prioritize growth with future rate cuts despite inflation risks rising to near 3.8%.
insights INSIGHT
Uncertainty and Fed Challenges
Policy uncertainty from tariffs creates unmeasurable uncertainty complicating market reactions.
The Fed's challenge is managing conflicting objectives of growth slowdown and inflationary pressures from tariffs.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 6th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, joins for an extended discussion on tariffs, the outlook for the US economy, a potential recession in 2025, and this week's Fed meeting. Global stocks fell today due to concerns about the trade war's impact on companies and the world economy. Recent optimism fueled by US trade concessions is fading, and markets are bracing for an economic slowdown, with investors reducing exposure to the US and expecting fewer Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. 2) Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock, offers his outlook for the US economy, signals from the bond market, and long/short strategies as investors weigh how to play stocks and bonds. Investors are coming around to the view that the Fed won’t cut interest rates as early or as deeply as earlier anticipated. While it’s expected to leave interest rates on hold this week, money markets have pushed back the timing of the first reduction to July and see three cuts by year-end, rather than the four they had expected a week ago. 3) Joe Mazzola, Head Trading and Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab, talks about client activity, where investors are playing risk in markets, and what concerns they're expressing amid growing economic uncertainty. While the spot VIX index has fallen to near where it was before stocks slumped on tariff fears in early April, the VIX futures curve is signaling concerns that the market turbulence may return. 4) Zohran Mamdani, NYC Mayoral Candidate and NYC assemblyman, discusses his candidacy for mayor, his proposed policies, and whether Democratic Socialists like him are a key piece of the future of the national Democratic platform. According to one Democrat - NY House Rep. Pat Ryan - Democrats must take more risks to counter the GOP power trifecta successfully or they could face an extended stint on the sidelines. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including reports on the fashion and fundraising from the Met Gala and a WSJ exclusive on the Trump administration holding schools responsible for students paying back their loans.
Bloomberg Surveillance 
