Middle East analysts Nick Danforth, Steven Cook, Joyce Karam, and Faysal Itani discuss how the war in Gaza impacts Israel's relations with the Gulf and American interests in the Middle East. They delve into the future of the Abraham Accords, governing post-war Gaza, the impact of the October 7th attacks on the UAE and the Abraham Accords, public opinion in the Middle East, Hamas's victory, radicalization, Saudi-Israel normalization, and the changing American view of the region.
The attacks by Hamas in Gaza have had a favorable outcome for Hamas, impacting Israel's relations with the Gulf and the future of the Abraham Accords.
The US faces challenges in managing its relationships with Gulf states and Israel, with doubts arising among Gulf leaders due to the lack of a clear plan or substantive steps from the US.
Deep dives
Hamas Attacks and Impact on the Abraham Accords
The October 7th attacks by Hamas were not specifically intended to disrupt Saudi-Israeli normalization, although the outcome is favorable for Hamas. The Emiratis and Bahrainis initially criticized Hamas but have become more critical of Israel due to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. However, there is no indication they want to sever ties. The attacks have been a setback for UAE's strategic goals and their hopes for normalization.
The Complexity of Saudi-Israeli Normalization
Saudi Arabia's size and complexity make the price of normalization higher for them. They have more constituencies to consider and need Israel to meet certain expectations. The UAE and Bahrain are in a different situation and have shown more subdued hopes for the Abraham Accords. However, the Saudi idea of a more integrated Middle East may take longer to achieve, given the current circumstances.
Challenges in Gaza and the Future of the Palestinian Authority
The future of Gaza is uncertain, with options ranging from continued Israeli occupation to a potential transition to the Palestinian Authority. The Gulf states would support a Palestinian Authority takeover if it ensures a docile Palestinian population and avoids restarting military conflicts. However, there are doubts about the viability of the Palestinian Authority in both the West Bank and Gaza. The US will play a crucial role in managing relationships with its allies and finding a political horizon for the conflict.
US Role and Challenges in Managing Relations
The US faces challenges in managing its relationships with Gulf states and Israel. The lack of a clear plan or substantive steps from the US raises doubts among Gulf leaders. The impact on US image in the region after supporting Israel during the conflict is significant, and it affects relationships with Gulf allies. The future of US involvement in the region may experience shifts as recent events and changing public opinion shape America's view of the region.
Nick Danforth sat down with Steven Cook, Joyce Karam, and Faysal Itani to discuss how the war in Gaza will impact Israel’s relations with the Gulf and American interests in the Middle East. Among other topics, they debated the future of the Abraham Accords and what options, if any, exist for governing post-war Gaza.
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