Investors Are "Pretty Drunk Right Now" On Gains Despite Risks | Ted Oakley

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Sep 14, 2025

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, shares his insights on the market's overly optimistic mindset amid unprecedented stock valuations. He discusses the risks of complacency and potential market corrections, emphasizing the importance of cautious investment strategies. Oakley also explores inflation trends, the appeal of gold as a stable investment during downturns, and the impact of federal policies on economic stability. His expert advice encourages investors to seek guidance and remain vigilant in uncertain times.

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INSIGHT

Valuations Are Historically Stretched

US stock valuations are at historically extreme levels across many metrics.
Ted Oakley warns this can persist short-term but is unlikely to be sustainable long-term.

INSIGHT

High Leverage Amplifies Downside Risk

Leverage in the system is very high, with margin debt above $1 trillion.
Oakley notes leverage amplifies declines when selling starts and can force rapid liquidations.

INSIGHT

Macro Slowdown Raises Repricing Risk

Slowing macroeconomic growth makes lofty valuations vulnerable to repricing.
Oakley expects a market reset once earnings outlooks disappoint versus current multiples.

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SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Oxbow at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/oxbowStock valuations are at their highest EVER, by many metrics.So much so that a recent guest on this channel calls them "pornographically" overvalued.And these lofty valuations come at a time when the macro data reveals the economy is slowing down.How long can this dichotomy last before either stocks must reprice downwards or the economy picks up?For seasoned expertise, we have the good fortune of welcoming back to the program high net worth financial advisor Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors.#valuations #bearmarket #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.