Exclusive interview with former Counselor of US State Department Eliot A. Cohen & Phillips O'Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at St Andrews
Sep 26, 2024
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In this engaging conversation, Eliot A. Cohen, former Counselor of the U.S. State Department, and Phillips O'Brien, a Strategic Studies expert at St Andrews, dissect vital failures in Western intelligence analysis regarding the Ukraine conflict. They argue that misjudging Ukrainian resilience led to flawed predictions of a quick Russian victory. The pair emphasize the need for diverse analytical perspectives to improve future military strategies. They also delve into the motivations of war leaders, particularly Putin, and discuss the broader implications of nuclear deterrence in modern warfare.
The podcast underscores the necessity of improving Western analytical and intelligence frameworks to avert future conflicts effectively.
Recent military developments in Ukraine reveal ongoing volatility and Ukraine's strategic progress despite persistent threats from Russian forces.
The diplomatic return of Ukrainian children from Russia highlights ethical concerns surrounding child welfare amid negotiations during the conflict.
Deep dives
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Children Returned from Russia
Recent reports highlight that Russia has returned nine Ukrainian children who were previously deported during the ongoing conflict. These children ranged in age from 12 to 17, and their return was facilitated through negotiations involving Qatari representatives. The incident underscores the serious issue of children being taken from Ukraine to Russia amidst the war. The use of child repatriation in diplomatic negotiations raises ethical concerns about the motivations behind such actions.
Military Developments in Ukraine
The podcast discusses the current military situation in Ukraine, particularly emphasizing the recent missile strikes and drone activities around Kyiv. Reports indicate that Russian forces attempted to launch missiles, resulting in several air defense actions where most threats were neutralized. Ukrainian troops are making gradual progress in various regions, including successfully closing the Volchank Salient near Kharkiv. The ongoing tension at the front lines illustrates the persistent volatility of the situation in Ukraine, impacting both military strategy and civilian life.
International Support for Ukraine
Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to the United States aims to solidify military support following a comprehensive plan for victory against Russian forces. This comes alongside announcements of new military aid packages from the U.S., including advanced weaponry and defense systems. Zelensky highlighted the importance of bipartisan support in the U.S. for Ukraine during his address, thanking the American government for its assistance. The evolving geopolitical landscape calls for continued solidarity among international allies to uphold Ukraine's defense capabilities.
Today, following the usual military and political updates in this major week, we talk to two of the most high profile analysts of the war about their new report into how rectifying systematic failures in Western analysis and intelligence is vital for preventing future conflict.
Contributors:
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.
Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.
Roland Oliphant (Senior Foreign Correspondent). @RolandOliphant on X.
Eliot A. Cohen (Former Counsellor of the United States Department of State). @EliotACohen on X.
Phillips O'Brien (Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews). @PhillipsPOBrien on X.
Report Referenced:
'The Russia-Ukraine War: A Study in Analytic Failure' (by Phillips O'Brien & Eliot Cohen)