Interest-Rate Cuts Coming? Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee Has Thoughts
Dec 20, 2023
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Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee discusses potential interest rate hikes, the risk of recession, and shifting the Fed's focus to the U.S. labor market. The podcast explores varying opinions on rate cuts within the Federal Reserve and the influence of the Fed's actions on inequality.
Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee suggests shifting focus from inflation to the slowing U.S. labor market.
There is uncertainty among investors regarding interest rate cuts as different Fed officials express contradictory views.
Deep dives
Market Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts
Following the Federal Reserve meeting, market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts dramatically increased. The Fed funds futures market indicated that investors were betting on at least six rate cuts next year. This anticipation of rate cuts is expected to drive stock prices to new highs in 2024, as stated by firms such as Bank of America and RBC Capital Markets. However, there is still uncertainty among investors, as the Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not contradict these expectations, but the New York Fed President John Williams stated that the central bank was not considering rate cuts and may even need to raise rates.
Monetary Policy and Unemployment
Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee discussed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the current focus on inflation versus unemployment. Goolsbee highlighted the need to shift the Fed's game plan from prioritizing inflation to considering the unemployment rate. He explained that in a restrictive environment, when the unemployment rate starts increasing, it tends to rise rapidly, emphasizing the importance of being mindful of potential risks. Goolsbee also mentioned the diversity of viewpoints among Fed members, but expressed confidence that the committee has been following the dual mandate for 2023.
Financial Market Reactions and Fed's Focus on Inflation
The episode touched on the reactions of financial markets following the Fed's recent meeting. While market predictions of rate cuts were heavy, some Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, contradicted these expectations by suggesting a potential need to tighten policy further. Goolsbee cautioned that too much weight should not be placed on short-term market reactions, emphasizing the importance of staying focused on data and fulfilling the Fed's dual mandate. He stated that the primary determinant of future rate decisions is whether inflation is on a path to target, and that market movements should be rooted in actual data rather than speculation.
The financial markets seem convinced that interest rates are poised to come down next year. But officials at the Federal Reserve aren’t committing to rate cuts yet. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who was on the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, joins WSJ’s Take On the Week to discuss why “all things are on the table” when it comes to interest rates, including potential rate hikes, and why he thinks there is still a risk of recession. Plus: what’s keeping him up at night, and why he says it may be time for the Fed to shift its focus from inflation to the slowing U.S. labor market.