Hans Kristensen reveals China's new ICBM silos and their impact on China's nuclear power. Robert Manning discusses challenges of spying on North Korea, including recruitment efforts and relationships with intelligence services of China, Russia, and North Korea. The chapter also explores the feasibility of North Korea giving up nuclear weapons and the possibility of a first strike.
China's construction of massive missile silos indicates rapid expansion of its nuclear capabilities, potentially surpassing Russia's number of silos.
Gathering intelligence on North Korea is extremely challenging due to its closed-off nature, limited international contact, and the regime's strict sanctions.
Deep dives
China's Massive Construction of Missile Silos
Commercially available satellite photos have revealed the massive construction of missile silos in China. These silos, located in central and northern parts of the country, are a completely new development on a large scale. The construction of these silos suggests that China is rapidly expanding its strategic capabilities. If all the silos are filled with missiles, it would represent more nuclear warheads than China currently has in its stockpile. This construction project surpasses the number of missile silos operated by Russia. While some speculate that these silos could be decoys, the evidence indicates that this is a full-scale deployment plan. The advantage of solid fuel missiles is that they can be fired faster than liquid fuel missiles, giving China a more rapid response capability.
Challenges of Spying on North Korea
North Korea presents significant challenges for intelligence gathering due to its extreme insularity and hermetically sealed nature. Unlike other countries like Iran or China, North Korea is highly closed off and allows little international contact. The regime, under Kim Jong Un, has imposed strict sanctions, cutting off border access and restricting information flow. This isolation makes it extremely difficult to penetrate the leadership circle and gather accurate information. While there are electronic means and surveillance satellites, human intelligence is limited, and North Korean defectors are rare and do not provide extensive insight into the regime's inner workings.
The Difficulty of Denuclearizing North Korea
The denuclearization of North Korea poses a significant challenge due to deep-rooted mistrust on both sides. North Korea views its nuclear weapons as essential for regime survival and a deterrent against possible regime change or external threats. From the perspective of Kim Jong Un, trusting the United States is unlikely when the U.S. has a history of pushing for regime change and highlighting human rights issues. Negotiations and arms control efforts have faced limitations due to North Korea's unwillingness to provide a credible declaration of its nuclear weapons program and allow inspections. The reality on the ground is that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, and efforts must focus on deterrence and engagement to shape their future behavior.
Challenges and Limitations in Intelligence Gathering
Intelligence gathering on North Korea relies heavily on electronic intercepts, satellite imagery, and on-the-ground capabilities. While the United States has advanced electronic penetration and satellite coverage, the nature of North Korea's secretive regime limits our ability to access high-level information and penetrate the leadership circle. Human intelligence recruitment is challenging, with few defections or informants providing substantial insights. The use of deception, black markets, and tunneling further complicates intelligence collection. However, information gathered from open sources, such as commercially available satellite imagery, has become increasingly valuable and has led to significant discoveries in North Korea's activities and military modernization.
Jeanne Meserve talks with Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, about how the world learned of China’s startling new ICBM silos, and Jeff Stein talks with Asia expert Robert Manning about the challenges of spying on North Korea.
